Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.174230 1.332592 1.500142 1.690180 1.899291 2.121920 2.376406
2025-02-02 0.948030 1.164590 1.408106 1.700533 2.040386 2.421105 2.877975
2025-02-09 0.765560 1.016134 1.314909 1.693416 2.155842 2.697955 3.376719
2025-02-16 0.623909 0.894789 1.236970 1.693331 2.277614 2.991761 3.920781
2025-02-23 0.491854 0.764916 1.130975 1.645035 2.334162 3.210926 4.393446
2025-03-02 0.376750 0.638367 1.011461 1.563561 2.338210 3.362971 4.793650
2025-03-09 0.306056 0.563061 0.951593 1.554907 2.436881 3.644513 5.381900
2025-03-16 0.244187 0.489515 0.883250 1.524835 2.501266 3.883361 5.929282
2025-03-23 0.209223 0.453478 0.867003 1.569813 2.676944 4.288543 6.731555
2025-03-30 0.163905 0.389329 0.795206 1.518518 2.702215 4.478617 7.241162
2025-04-06 0.132473 0.343995 0.747880 1.500169 2.774958 4.741347 7.869713
2025-04-13 0.105348 0.300487 0.696390 1.467455 2.820000 4.963099 8.448398
2025-04-20 0.089383 0.278329 0.683572 1.505024 2.990500 5.399820 9.392932
2025-04-27 0.075111 0.256205 0.667211 1.534239 3.149689 5.829805 10.353224
2025-05-04 0.061639 0.231885 0.641968 1.543325 3.274394 6.212194 11.260829
2025-05-11 0.050734 0.210813 0.619875 1.555613 3.405554 6.613131 12.219416
2025-05-18 0.039234 0.183299 0.577329 1.520075 3.444604 6.860651 12.941751
2025-05-25 0.028715 0.153726 0.522891 1.450897 3.412158 6.981585 13.460032
2025-06-01 0.022933 0.138007 0.500287 1.448414 3.508633 7.333153 14.380929
2025-06-08 0.017644 0.121090 0.470314 1.424414 3.559020 7.604048 15.175981
2025-06-15 0.015146 0.114953 0.469885 1.470517 3.756823 8.153457 16.475574
2025-06-22 0.011135 0.098527 0.434187 1.424584 3.756617 8.335505 17.139210
2025-06-29 0.008550 0.087378 0.412008 1.409270 3.819856 8.638725 18.028724